Where are we in the Collector Car Market in 2025

 

2025 has been one heck of roller coaster year in the collector car world. It started off with a lot of tailwinds especially with the pro-business friendly administration setting the stage for growth in all markets. That coupled with the forecasts for an expanding economy was driving sales until the tariffs hit on April 1st causing an immediate pause for the markets. The tariffs are affecting the collector car market, even the cars that are over twenty-five years old. We have seen a massive increase in price appreciation across certain sectors of the car market, especially the 80’s to present iconic series cars. Pebble Beach saw 818 cars sell across the block during Monterey Car Week for a total of $433m. A Ferrari SP3 Daytona for was auctioned off by the factory for Charity, it held the top spot at $26m. There was a flight to hard assets across all assets classes this year, especially in the back half of the year.

 

2025 has seen the continued shift into the “Young timer” sector of market that the Generation X through Millennials have been acquiring more of. The 1980’s-late 2000’s cars are currently where the 50’s-60’s cars were in the 90’s – 2000’s when the Baby Boomer generation was in the acquisition/collection phase of their life cycle. We have seen that genre of cars in general pullback in prices YoY. From mid-2024 to present we have seen a rapid price increase of the 2010-present hyper cars and special series cars. We are seeing a market that is fragmented-think model by model; so certain sectors have more strength than others. For example: Porsche 918’s, Porsche GT3’s, 05/06 Ford GT’s, Lamborghini Diablo’s, Ferrari 458 Speciale’s, Ferrari 360 CS’s, Ferrari Halo Cars (288/F40/F50/Enzo/LaF) to name a few. There are pockets, its not a rising tide lifts all boats type of market increase. The few vintage cars that did have a big print-it was a pristine example, had amazing pedigree and be a non-red color, a Factory Black Dino 246GTS “Chairs and Flares” broke $1m.

 

This year we have seen a broader interest in the bespoke brands from Ruf, Bugatti and Pagani, such as several Pagani Zonda’s that have traded hands publicly where as most trade in a very private market.

 

Below Hagerty has dissected a chart and breakdown of sales from Car Week.

How do Tariffs impact the Collector Car Market?

 

So, what about these tariffs we are all hearing about? We’ve heard other countries are paying for them. I can tell you with first-hand knowledge, that is not case. Any importer is paying the tariff. Here’s what it looks like; in the pre-tariff world, you would pay 2.5% duty on each vehicle imported into the U.S. This was for all automobiles imported into the U.S. no matter the age. Post April 1 on “Liberation Day,” cars that were 25 years and older were supposed to be “exempt” from the tariffs and only charged the standard 2.5% duty rate. Us, along with many of our peers discovered, is not the case currently. We were hit unexpectedly with retroactive tariff bills for cars that were over 25 years of age and imported well after April 1. For any car that was built in the EU, an additional 15% tariff was applied to the auto, bringing the total duty and tariff payment to (2.5% duty + 15% tariff) 17.5%.

 

The U.S. government collected $177bln in tariffs through October 1 compared to $77bln in FY 2024. The current administration is looking at these tariffs as a way to pay down the current $38 trillion debt burden and to shrink the trade deficit which was noted by the Treasury Department last week; September saw a collection of $30bln in tariff collections alone.  It will be interesting to see the outcome from the Supreme Court next month when they are supposed to have a decision. I think it’s fair to say that it looks like the tariffs on automobiles are here to stay.

 

Speaking to some of our international suppliers, the market has slowed significantly for export as the U.S. comprised of most of their sales. The cars inside the U.S. have become more valuable as there is a tighter supply of 288’s, F40’s, F50’s, Diablo’s to name a few examples.

 

Our prediction is that prices in the RoW (Rest of World) will settle down to accommodate the tariffs in the U.S. The U.S. market is the largest market for the rest of the world to sell to. I remember this line from my old banking days during the financial crisis, “When the U.S. Sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.” The rest-of-world market will likely feel this shift within the next one or two quarters as the U.S. — the largest buyer and most liquid market — slows its pace of buying internationally. The European and Asian markets must acquiesce to accommodate the additional new tariff costs.

What cars are the “Holy Grail” of cars today?

 

Over the past several months, we’ve seen a massive run-up in collector car prices — particularly across what we call “halo cars.” As many of you know, we are among the larger importers and traders of investment-grade halo cars in the U.S., including:

•Ferrari 288 GTO

•Ferrari F40

•Ferrari F50

•Ferrari Enzo

•Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale

•Ferrari 458 Speciale

•Ferrari 599 GTO

•Lamborghini Diablo’s, Diablo SE30’s

 

Analog-era limited production supercars have dominated the spotlight this quarter, with significant appreciation across nearly every segment. We have had a front row seat to the market dynamics as this is the core of our business.

A striking example: Ralph Lauren’s Ferrari F50 — one of just 55 U.S. examples and one of only two U.S. examples finished in yellow — recently traded hands for $9.25M, up from $5–$5.5M just a year ago. Strip away the ownership provenance, and it’s a $6.5–$7M car.

 

 

“The analog supercar era has officially become the new blue-chip sector.”

 

Monterey Car Week Takeaways

 

This season’s auctions were punctuated by notable sales, especially for modern classics:

·     F40LM: $11M (RM Sotheby’s)-World Record (WR)

·     F50: $9.5M (RM Sotheby’s)- WR

o   (1 of 31 Yellow and 1 of 2 U.S. and Ralph Lauren provenance)

·     Maserati MC12: $5.2M (Broad Arrow)-WR

·     599 GTO: $2m (RM Sotheby’s)-WR

·     Ferrari LaFerrari: $6.7m (RM Sotheby’s)-WR

·     Koenigsegg CCXR Targa: $3.22m (Broad Arrow) WR

·     RUF CTR Anniversary Coupe: $3.14m (Broad Arrow) WR

·     512TR: $775k (RM Sotheby’s)-WR

o   Single-owner, low-mile example (a reminder that unique provenance remains decisive).

 

Total sales rang in at $432.8m, 818 lots sold across the peninsula for a 76% sale through rate. This sale number included the $26m charity SP3 sale for the Ferrari foundation. This car would’ve typically transacted for around $6-7m. If we normalize this sale-we can adjust the total to be more in line $412.8m. This compares to the 2022 high water mark of $471m in total sales during Monterey Car Week.

 

Auction activity centered on vehicles from the 1980s to mid-2010s—a sector now echoing the rise of ‘60s cars in prior decades. The generational shift was palpable in Monterey, with younger enthusiasts and burgeoning car spotters in attendance. The market has spoken: the “analog supercar” era is where collectors are deploying capital right now. These models occupy the same cultural and investment position that 1960s icons did in the 1990s and early 2000s. Generationally, Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z are collecting what they grew up dreaming about. During Monterey Car Week, Ferrari held 8 out of the top 10 sales and was the brand with the most strength this year.

 

Certain earlier models like the Mercedes 300SL’s, Ferrari 246 Chairs & Flares Dino’s, and Lamborghini Miura’s remain perennial interests, on the American side we have seen real strength in the early Shelby market from 65-67 and 50’s-60’s gas station memorabilia. We are seeing a lot of the current activity that is occurring in the market happening at the auction houses with todays current buyers.

 

 

Looking ahead, we expect continued demand for exceptional vehicles but encourage clients and subscribers to navigate this market with care, discernment, and a long-term perspective. Our motto is to always buy what you like, don’t try and chase cars that are moving-even when they go down. You want to really love what you are looking at, don’t buy to speculate. If and when we do have a washout, it is very difficult to sell a substandard non-investment grade example, they are less liquid.

 

 

Discipline is critical now — focus on provenance, originality, and quality, not hype. True investment-grade examples should remain stable, while speculative examples risk correction.

 

Our team celebrated key victories, including winning our class at The Quail with the Japan winning Michael Schumacher Ferrari F1 F310B and closing several significant transactions during the week.

 

Collector Car Market Sentiment: The Near-Term Top

 

In our view, Pebble Beach marked the near-term top of this market cycle. Our opinion is that valuations were pulled forward by 3-5 years in most cases due to two main things, a generational shift into this sector of cars and the de-dollarization due to the continued inflation and money printing.

 

Prices for true “investment-grade” examples are likely to remain stable, but we’ve observed concerning behavior among buyers chasing lesser-quality examples simply to gain exposure all across the board, whether it’s a 30k km F40 or a 30k mile Ferrari 16M. That dynamic is pushing up values across the board — but not all examples are created equal.

 

We’re also seeing some irrational seller behavior: asking prices from sellers have now become moving goal posts from day to day; sellers are pricing their cars as if they’re headlining a Saturday-night fever auction including the buyer’s premiums. For those of you that remember “Vegas Vacation” and the scene in the casino where Eddie and Clark are in the Casino playing a game, “Guess a number between 1 and 10” where Clark must guess the number the dealer is thinking. This is the kind of market we are currently in, even us as dealers are finding it challenging to buy car with a moving price targets by the hour.

 

This type of euphoric behavior is witnessed near the top of a market. If you’re a buyer, discipline is key. Focus on true investment-grade examples — not those simply riding the wave.

 

 

Our view: Remain selective. If you can’t afford an investment-grade example, don’t buy simply to participate.

 

 

Financial Markets

 

Stock markets rebounded to record highs by October, propelled by surprisingly strong corporate earnings and persistent demand for risk assets despite initial selloffs from trade tariffs. Ongoing tensions with China over technology and rare earths continue amid an escalating global AI race. Developed market bonds have struggled as rising inflation erodes quality, but emerging market debt and global credit offer diversification.

 

The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates further, balancing inflation, employment and record equity markets. This disconnect raises questions about recession risks, the sustainability of the AI boom, and how early we are in the cycle. Notably, ChatGPT reached 800 million active daily users in 2 years compared to the internet’s 13 years to reach the same level. The surge in data center construction and unprecedented power demand is happening alongside gridlock in Washington over spending and program cuts. We are currently in the second longest government shut down in history, only by 5 days, so as I write this we could eclipse the previous shutdown record of 34 days.

 

The U.S. fiscal picture has deteriorated, with a 6% deficit compared to previous surpluses in past economic cycles. Policy moves have sustained downward pressure on the dollar and fueled a global search for real, inflation-resistant stores of value. As it relates to the collector car market, foreign buyers have renewed interest in tangible U.S. assets, including collector cars, as they seek stability outside volatile currency environments. We have seen foreign interest in some of our limited production examples—especially cars with very rare history.

 

In summary, we feel that we will continue to see a “De-Dollarization,” especially as the world ponders how the U.S. is going to refinance ~$11tln of debt coming due in the next ten months; we cannot afford to lower rates to the previous levels the U.S. consumer has grown accustomed to the past two decades.

 

Based on our current central government and administration policies that will continue to have downward pressure on the dollar which will lead to continued prolonged inflation. It is our view that we will see a continued rotation into hard physical assets—especially by both domestic and foreign buyers as they want to trade their dollars for physical assets.

Wrapping it all up

 

The collector car market has mirrored broader trends in the alternative asset space, with continued strength amongst limited production, investment grade examples and renewed enthusiasm for analog era cars. This genre has seen sustained demand from both seasoned collectors and new entrants seeking diversification outside of traditional markets. We believe the near-term top is in for the collector car market-but there are some external forces that can change our view.

 

If the federal government continues to lower interest rates, we believe this will accelerate the ongoing deleveraging of the US Dollar by institutional investors and foreign holders, prompting a shift of liquidity into tangible hard assets. Vehicles such as collector cars, fine art, memorabilia, and physical precious metals become attractive not only as inflation hedges but also for their portability and utility in cross-border transactions.

 

However, it is important to consider external risks that could undermine the broader market, such as geopolitical instability, global supply chain disruptions, persistent inflation, and policy uncertainty, all of which have the potential to erode confidence and trigger volatility in both traditional equities and alternative assets.

 

That said, prices for the best-documented, low-mileage examples remain stable, and we continue to view these assets as strong long-term stores of value. There are some cars in our view that are undervalued and we would be long those and there are some cars that we feel that have overshot to the upside and would be sitting that out unless you have to have that specific example or mode. The next phase of the market will likely favor, selectivity over speculation, with buyers prioritizing provenance, originality, and quality over momentum. As capital continues to rotate into tangible assets, we expect collector cars to remain a key beneficiary, offering investors both emotional enjoyment and portfolio resilience in a complex macro environment.

 

 

The analog era continues to define the current market cycle, but near-term caution is warranted. Selectivity, patience, and provenance remain the key drivers of sustained performance.

 

  Interested in Allocation or Advisory?

Contact us to discuss portfolio strategy or current acquisition opportunities that we have available both on and off market.

For those exploring entry or expansion in this market, we continue to ask the same key questions:

• Which models align with your goals?

• What is your time horizon?

• What is your risk tolerance and liquidity expectation?